Gartner Forecasts LEO Satellite Direct-to-Device Connections in Australia and New Zealand to Reach 1.5 Million in 2027

Low-earth orbit (LEO) direct-to-device (D2D) services in Australia and New Zealand are expected to deliver more than 670,000 connections in 2026, helping close the mobile connectivity gap in rural and regional communities, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company. This compares with more than 250,000 connections in 2025 and is forecast to exceed 1.5 million connections in 2027.

“Australia and New Zealand are among the early adopters of LEO D2D satellite communications due to the vast remoteness and persistent gaps in terrestrial mobile coverage in both countries,” said Khurram Shahzad, Senior Director Analyst at Gartner. “Adoption is accelerating rapidly as services move beyond early trials and into broader commercial availability, demonstrating how satellite connectivity can extend mobile coverage without the need for traditional infrastructure.”

LEO satellites orbit closer to the Earth than traditional satellite technology, providing faster connections and lower latency. This enables connectivity services to be delivered directly to standard smartphones in large geographies with gaps in mobile coverage and higher premium smartphone penetration. LEO D2D services bridge the connectivity gap by providing text, voice, and eventually, broadband data to users beyond the reach of traditional terrestrial mobile networks.

Gartner forecasts end-user spending on LEO D2D services in Australia and New Zealand to reach approximately US$23 million in 2026, up from US$5 million in 2025. Spending is projected to reach US$66 million in 2027 (see Table 1).

Table 1: Direct-to-Device LEO Satellite Services, Australia and New Zealand, 2025-2027

^{Source: Gartner (July 2026)}

“Current demand for LEO D2D services in Australia and New Zealand is primarily being driven by consumers requiring mobile connectivity in rural and remote areas, particularly for safety, recreation and off-grid travel,” said Shahzad. “However, enterprise demand is steadily increasing for field operations in industries such as mining, agriculture, forestry and transportation, where continuous connectivity is critical for operations and worker safety.”

Expanding Coverage to Meet Demand
As new use cases emerge, communication service providers (CSPs) are focused on expanding the LEO D2D services market in Australia and New Zealand, forming partnerships with LEO satellite operators and integrating D2D capabilities into mobile plans, typically as premium features or add-on services. This approach enables CSPs to expand coverage and differentiate their offerings without the high cost of building infrastructure in sparsely populated areas.

Gartner predicts 100% geographic outdoor mobile coverage will become a baseline customer expectation within five years, eliminating tier-1 CSPs of their historic infrastructure-based coverage advantages.

“CSPs are highly motivated to deploy D2D to reduce churn, differentiate their offerings, and capture an estimated 10% to 30% attractive average revenue per user (ARPU) uplift without the capital expenditure of building terrestrial towers in challenging geographies,” said Shahzad.

For example, Telstra has a first mover advantage in Australia, initially offering only text messaging, no direct charge for D2D in higher tier plans and services included as a value add in premium packages. Whereas in New Zealand, One NZ is taking the lead by claiming 100% geographic coverage of NZ’s rugged terrain and adding D2D services into postpaid plans to drive adoption.