Gartner Predicts Supply Chain Organizations Pausing Entry-Level Hiring for AI Will Face Higher Costs by 2030

By 2030, 75% of supply chain organizations that paused hiring for entry-level roles in 2026 will pay premiums upward of 15% for early-career professionals, according to Gartner, Inc., a business and technology insights company.

Attendees learned of multiple risks of pausing entry-level hiring during a period of uncertainty driven by AI advancements at Gartner Supply Chain Symposium/Xpo in Orlando.

“Many organizations are attempting to manage uncertainty today by pausing entry-level hiring, but they will face talent shortages for themselves in the near future,” said Simon Bailey, VP Analyst in Gartner’s Supply Chain practice. “AI is not a ‘plug and play’ replacement for people. Organizations that stop hiring, and fail to develop early-career professionals, will soon face talent pipeline gaps, employee dissatisfaction, and elevated hiring pay premiums, especially for AI-native talent.” 

A Gartner survey of 509 supply chain leaders globally across industries from July to October 2025, showed that advancements from AI and agentic AI are expected to be the most impactful drivers of future supply chain performance over the next three years. The survey also revealed that 55% of respondents expected a decline in entry level hiring as a result of agentic AI advancements.

Bailey told attendees that the most impactful results from AI will not be from headcount reduction, but rather the enablement of human-AI collaboration, which include utilizing AI to support, augment and automate decision-making. The organizations that continue to develop early career talent with both AI and business skills will also enable senior level staff to focus on high-level strategic work, such as building the cultural readiness to scale AI initiatives throughout the organization.

Gartner recommends chief supply chain officers (CSCOs) build and maintain their talent pipeline for an AI-augmented future:

• Audit supply chain processes and AI initiatives to understand their talent impact. Shift the conversation from job cuts to clarifying AI ambition, the talent patterns being created, and what they mean for the enterprise.
• Redesign workflows and roles to remove friction and prioritize value-added work and continuous learning. Teams that build skills through hands-on learning are more agile and nearly three times more skills-ready than those waiting for full readiness.
• Protect and future-proof the talent pipeline by investing in agile learning, coaching, mentoring, and targeted AI simulations—especially for early-career professionals who will become future leaders.
• Strengthen Employee Value Proposition to offset wage pressure by partnering with chief human resources officers (CHROs) and HR to target benefits employees value most, with emphasis on key Gen Z attractors like respect and work-life balance.

Gartner clients can read more in: Top CSCO Predicts 2026: Build the Key to Unlock Cost and Growth With AI-enabled Supply Chains. Nonclients can learn more in: The AI-Native Supply Chain.