Supply Chain’s Future is More Certain Than It Seems

"Fortune favors the prepared mind" is a famous quote attributed to Louis Pasteur, the French chemist renowned for his groundbreaking work in vaccine development. While this quote underscores the importance of preparation and readiness in scientific discovery and innovation, the same principle holds true for supply chains preparing for the future.

In an era marked by political upheaval, technological advancements, talent scarcity and climate change impacts, the future of supply chains can seem uncertain. Each of these shifts presents unique challenges that Chief Supply Chain Officers (CSCOs) must address to ensure their supply chains remain competitive in the future, and many supply chain organizations report feeling overwhelmed by the magnitude of these future changes.

However, insights from a panel of nearly 600 supply chain leaders reveal a significant level of consensus about what the future holds, as well as what actions to take in preparation for it. Key characteristics for future preparedness include embracing agility and resilience, tailoring operations to specific regions or markets, fostering strong collaboration with business partners and integrating supply chain strategy with overall corporate goals. But such strong consensus begs the question: if there’s so much clarity around how to prepare for the next three to five years, why isn’t everyone doing it?

Many surveyed supply chain leaders indicated their organizations lack strategic foresight due to insufficient scenario planning, and that their CEOs believe their supply chains have poor alignment with enterprise strategy. These organizations also tend to struggle with a myriad of short-term priorities that prevent them from pursuing long-term strategic work.

In contrast, leading organizations employ scenario planning and take intentional, long-term approaches to building their supply chain future operating model in alignment with their overall enterprise strategy. These leaders do this by creating robust frameworks based on crucial capabilities that allow them to anticipate and respond to future scenarios effectively. Their ability to exceed performance expectations is a testament to their strategic foresight and readiness (see figure below).

We developed Gartner’s 2025 Future of Supply Chain Executive Report (subsciption required) to help CSCOs get their supply chain prepared for future scenarios. This year’s version of the report is a little different than in the past: we didn’t want to solely investigate future trends. We wanted to investigate these future scenarios and the necessary capabilities and investments pathways that CSCOs will need to develop in preparation for them. The results are fascinating!

To prepare for future scenarios three to five years out, leading CSCOs are investing in developing supply chain capabilities across four areas: business model innovation, technology, talent and sustainability. While all four of these areas are critical for future success, their individual importance varies among organizations. One organization might view technology as the most important capability to build before all others, while another considers sustainability-related capabilities the most critical for investment.

Our research identified four investment pathways that leading organizations adopt to build the capabilities necessary for success in these future scenarios. Each pathway is characterized by one of four distinct profiles — Design, Durability, Deferment and Decision — that reflect the diverse ways in which leading organizations are investing in enabling capabilities. Each profile represents a valid pathway for success in future environments.

In this executive report, CSCOs will find both insight on future scenarios and pragmatic guidance about where and how they can target investments to deal with them (see figure below).

Here’s a brief summary of our guidance:

• Avoid getting caught up solely in short-term issues. Address the future by aligning supply chain strategy with long-term corporate goals through future scenario modeling.
• Prepare the supply chain for future scenarios by developing strengths in business model innovation, talent, sustainability, and technology.
• Learn from leading organizations and prioritize investments in supply chain design and business model innovation while developing employee talent and culture.

By embracing these strategies, CSCOs can ensure their supply chains are not only ready for future challenges but also positioned to thrive in an ever-evolving landscape.

Listen to our podcast on the topic on Gartner.com, Apple Podcasts and Spotify.
 

Pierfrancesco Manenti
VP Analyst
Gartner Supply Chain
Pierfrancesco.Manenti@gartner.com

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