Earth Day 2050

In celebration of Earth Day, I’m moving the clock forward a quarter century. 

It would be easy to depict a dystopian scenario. That’s the most common narrative in our media and “entertainment” industries. In today’s turbulent world, our reptilian brains have shifted us to perpetual fight-or-flight mode, leading us to hyperfocus on immediate threats and favor the worst cases.

Let’s break free of that pattern and imagine a timeline where forces supporting ecological well-being eventually outweigh those inhibiting it.

It’s the 80^th anniversary of Earth Day and large celebrations are planned in major cities spanning Earth and even our newer off-world outposts. We are living in a world that, while nowhere near perfect, is in much better shape ecologically than where we thought it would be, even 15-20 years ago.

How did we get here? Let’s explore some key threads.

The period spanning the 2020s to the mid-2030s saw an increasing incidence of climate-related natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, droughts and fires.

Governments, companies and individuals invested in hardening municipal infrastructure, corporate properties and homes against these threats. But, as the aggregate cost of rebuilding escalated, insurance rates also increased, and some locations became uninsurable.

This trend served as a catalyst for change. In the late 2020s through the mid-2030s, investments in developing and deploying renewable energy sources shifted into high gear and continued at pace, slowly shifting us toward more balanced weather patterns.

Back in the 2020s, most of our energy was sourced from fossil fuels like natural gas, oil and coal. This included electricity supplied via the grid and fuels used for transportation and temperature control in buildings.

At that time, the International Energy Agency issued a forecast showing the need for 85% of energy to come from non-fossil fuel sources to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, with the remainder’s emissions offset by carbon sinks. This was ambitious considering the trajectory of clean energy sources was headed toward roughly 40% of total supply in 2050, based on stated policies.

In the decades since, clean energy technologies went from niche to normal. Solar panels became as ubiquitous as streetlights and, along with other renewables, now generate most of our grids’ electricity with aid from advanced battery storage and management technologies.

Electric vehicles are the norm on our roads, supported by batteries that recharge in less than a minute. Most people also use self-driving vehicle technologies to optimize routes and real-time power consumption.

In our supply chains, where it’s not possible to find a local source, we’ve shifted our planes and ships to sustainable aviation and marine fuels based on non-food crops, algae biomass and waste feedstocks.

Nuclear energy saw a resurgence that began with the explosive growth of AI data centers in the 2020s. The majority of energy-intensive IT and industrial sites now host small modular reactors (SMRs) nearby.

And after decades of effort, the elusive promise of fusion energy was finally realized in the late 2040s, delivering nearly unlimited clean energy onto the grid.

One of the biggest game-changers has been the rise of artificial intelligence. Advanced AI – including early Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) systems introduced in the 2040s – now optimize our global energy use in real-time, squeezing out inefficiencies.

This has slashed waste, allowing businesses to reduce energy use by 10-20% through AI optimization. AI chips and processing techniques have likewise seen step-function improvements, requiring 90% less power to run than the early generative AI solutions introduced in the 2020s.

Beyond energy solutions, AI has become our eyes and ears for monitoring and managing air and water quality to positively impact people and nature.

Societally, we have learned to consume smarter. Led by younger generations (Gen B and now C), societies have moved away from the old model of endless growth tied to physical products. Our growth focus has shifted toward services and experiences as value adds.

High-income countries have also reinvented their economies to be more circular and sustainable, with a focus on quality of life for individuals and local communities. Many people now embrace reuse, recycling, and conscious consumption as simply the way things are done.

Happy Earth Day 2050, everyone!

This imaginary broadcast from the future will, inevitably and in so many ways, not come to pass. My hope is that it unlocks new thoughts about our collective future and presses us to consider what we want and don’t want in it.

We play dual roles as consumers and as the leaders of the world’s supply chain ecosystems. This gives us outsized influence over the future we’ll all be inhabiting.

What are some actions we can take now?

• Continue the ruthless elimination of supply chain waste – in materials, in movement and in overall energy consumption.
• Engage with design teams and suppliers to streamline product and portfolio complexity.
• Enlist ecosystem partners to adopt more sustainable materials, circular product flows and clean energy sources at a scale that is accretive to overall profitability.

Happy Earth Day 2025, everyone. Let’s get to work!

Stan Aronow
VP Distinguished Advisor
Gartner Supply Chain
Stan.Aronow@gartner.com